While it is common to hear a student rhapsodize about a reach school, it is unusual to hear the same enthusiasm for colleges that qualify as likely schools for that same student.

It’s not surprising that families focus on reach and top-choice schools—many students work incredibly hard to build an application that will allow them to be competitive at their reach schools, and that time is well spent!

However, having a college list conversation focusing on likely schools is also extremely important. Finding options where your student will be genuinely happy, fit their criteria, and offer a high likelihood of admission are invaluable assets for reducing the anxiety and pressure of the college application process.

Rather than viewing likely schools as worst-case scenarios, we believe that likely schools should be the foundation of a student’s college list, especially with the right mindset and research.

Most students apply to eight to 10 schools, but no matter the size of the list, we strongly recommend having three likely schools on your student’s college list. We have found that having three likely schools is a comfortable number that still allows students to evaluate their options in the spring and ensures peace of mind for families.

How likely is likely, exactly?

When we say “likely school,” we mean true insurance policies that your student has an extremely good chance of being admitted to—in other words, schools you would bet $100,000 on getting into, not just $1,000.

One rule of thumb is to make sure your student’s GPA and test scores are above the 75th percentile for that school. In-state public schools often make for good options. Some in-state schools even offer guaranteed admission for in-state students with certain grades and test scores. Schools in these categories are foundational options for likely schools.

As we also wrote about in our blog about building a college list, Naviance (if used at your student’s high school) allows students to compare themselves to past students from their high school who also applied to the same colleges, seeing if students with comparable grades and test scores were ultimately accepted or denied. Colleges know that not all high schools are exactly the same, so data from students at your school can be more reliable in predicting your admissions chances than data from a nationwide pool.

Your student’s school or college counselors should also be able to provide you with more likely school options based on their knowledge of your student and their invaluable experience at your student’s particular school.

Can you provide us with an example?

An example: Eleanor has a 3.85 unweighted GPA and got a 33 on the ACT.

Drexel University says that, for students admitted for the Fall 2024 semester, the middle 50% of ACT scores ranged from 27 to 32. Enrolled freshmen had an average GPA of 3.75.

Given her grades and test scores, Eleanor can confidently consider Drexel a likely school.

If Eleanor were to submit her application to Villanova University, where the average applicant’s unweighted GPA is 3.98 and the middle 50% range of ACT scores is 32 to 34, she should consider it a target school, not a likely school.

How to Create A Likely School List

Remember that the right likely schools are not just schools your student is likely to be accepted into, but ones where they can envision themselves enjoying for four years. These schools are the foundations of the college list; without them, the anxiety about the college admission process only increases. 

Consider the following three factors when researching likely schools:

1. Make sure the likely school matches their dream college environment, size, culture, location, and academic programs. 
2. Consider financial benefits, including and beyond in-state tuition. In fact, private institutions that are “likely schools” for your student may offer enough merit scholarship money that the final tuition bill may be cheaper than a public, in-state option. 
3. Also, consider academic and social benefits. If your student is admitted to a likely school, then they may be admitted to a special program or an honors college that includes exclusive seminars, priority housing, or advanced course selection.

If you would like assistance with generating ideas for likely schools based on your student’s profile as an applicant, consider our college list service.

Have thoughtful conversations about likely schools.

For too many students and families, the phrase “likely school” conjures fears of disappointment and rejection. 

Many students and families are so focused on reach and target schools that they only consider factors like admission chances and affordability when thinking about likely schools.

(For example, a Pennsylvania-based student may only want urban colleges, but will include Penn State on their list because of in-state tuition. But if they want in-state tuition, they can also get it at urban schools like the University of Pittsburgh or Temple University.)

Since there are already so many pressures and stresses associated with the college application process, remind your student that any college admissions “yes” is something to be proud of and grateful for—and that their likely school may well be someone else’s reach!

It can also relieve tension to assure your student that you will still be proud of them if they end up attending one of the likely schools on their list.

No one likes talking about potential let-downs, but ignoring the possibility that your student may not get into one of their top-choice schools for fear of discouraging them risks turning a time of joy and excitement into a time of apprehension and dejection.

The key to avoiding this tricky situation is to choose likely schools that your student can genuinely imagine as not just their school, but also their home for the next four years. They should be passionate about their likely schools and confident that they can pursue a fulfilling academic and personal life at those colleges.

Time and again, the students and families who are the least stressed out about the college application process are those who have thoughtfully considered and openly communicated about likely schools. They know that even if the end of the journey includes some disappointments and sadness, there will still be a happy ending.